Dampak Perubahan Nilai Tukar (Exchange Rate Pass-Throuh) Terhadap Beberapa Kelompok Indek Harga Bahan Makanan di Indonesia
Abstract
Nilai tukar berpengaruh penting dalam perekonomian setiap Negara termasuk Indonesia, karena dampaknya yang luas terhadap makroekonomi agregat, seperti pertumbuhan ekonomi, tingkat inflasi ataupun tingkat harga. Pergerakan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap Dollar Amerika sangat fluktuatif karena sejak periode 1998 Indonesia menyerahkan sepenuhnya penentuan nilai tukar rupiah kepada mekanisme pasar. Perubahan nilai tukar akan menyebabkan perubahan pada harga impor sehingga akan memengaruhi harga barang dan jasa domestik yang dikonsumsi masyarakat. Perubahan harga tersebut dapat dicermati dari indeks harga konsumen (IHK) yang terbagi kedalam tujuh kelompok, salah satunya yaitu kelompok bahan makanan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dampak perubahan nilai tukar terhadap beberapa kelompok indek harga konsumen bahan makanan (IHKbm) di Indonesia dan menganalisis peranan nilai tukar dalam menjelaskan fluktuasi IHKbm tersebut. Penelitian ini hanya melihat faktor eksternal yang memengaruhi harga domestik dan hanya melihat dampak langsung dari perubahan nilai tukar terhadap harga domestik melalui harga barang impor. Untuk mengukur dampaknya tersebut penelitian ini menggunakan indikator derajat passthrough yang diperoleh dari nilai Impulse Response Function (IRF). Sedangkan kontribusi nilai tukar terhadap harga domestik dilihat dari Decomposition of Forecasting Error Variance (DFEV), dan Cholesky Decomposition digunakan untuk mengidentifikasi guncangan model VAR yang dikombinasikan dengan VECM. Data sekunder yang digunakan adalah data bulanan time series pada periode Januari-1998 sampai Desember-2013. Hasil empiris menunjukkan bahwa selama periode penelitian terjadi incomplete pass-through pada ke-sebelas kelompok IHK bahan makanan. Derajat pass-through terbesar terjadi pada kelompok IHK Susu, telor dan hasilnya sebesar 0.24. Implikasinya perubahan kenaikan 1 persen dalam nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar (depresiasi) menyebabkan perubahan kenaikan harga-harga konsumen kelompok susu, telor dan hasilnya sebesar 0.24 persen.
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References
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